Completed

4 Sep

Ch. 3: Conditional Credences - Pages 65-72.

We introduce and discuss the notions of Relevance, Independence & Screening Off.

28 Aug

Ch. 3: Conditional Credences - Pages 55-64.

We introduce and work with the Ratio Formula and some of its consequences.

21 Aug

Ch. 2: Probability Distributions - Pages 41-48.

We finish-off chapter 2, tying-up some loose ends and addressing anything we haven't quite understood from chapters 1 and 2. So bring your questions!  

14 Aug

Ch. 2: Probability Distributions - Pages 34-41.

We continue introducing some consequences of the probability axioms. We approach the Lottery paradox from a Bayesian perspective and study different approaches to representing probability.

7 Aug

Ch. 2: Probability Distributions - Pages 25-34.

We are aiming at solving the Lottery Paradox. We introduce partitions, state-descriptions, some probability axioms and their consequences. 

30 Jul 2024 

Ch. 1: Beliefs and Degrees of Belief

We introduce two puzzles of binary belief: Lottery Paradox & Preface Paradox. We then consider whether we should work with graded belief instead by introducing the notion of comparative confidence.